Friday, August 16, 2019

Q3 GDP Forecasts: Around 2%

by Calculated Risk on 8/16/2019 11:21:00 AM

From Merrill Lynch:

The data boosted our 3Q GDP tracking estimate by 0.4pp to 2.1% qoq saar. 2Q was unchanged at 1.8%. [Aug 15 estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman Sachs:
we left our Q3 GDP tracking estimate unchanged on a rounded basis at +2.1% (qoq ar). [Aug 16 estimate]
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 1.8% for 2019:Q3. [Aug 16 estimate].
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2019 is 2.2 percent on August 16, unchanged from August 15 after rounding. After this morning's new residential construction report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of third-quarter real residential investment growth increased from -1.2 percent to 0.7 percent. [Aug 16 estimate]
CR Note: These early estimates suggest real GDP growth will be around 2% annualized in Q3.