Friday, August 02, 2019

Q3 GDP Forecasts: 1.6% to 1.9%

by Calculated Risk on 8/02/2019 02:00:00 PM

From Merrill Lynch:

The collapse in construction spending and soft inventories cut 0.3pp from 2Q GDP tracking, bringing our estimate down to 1.8% qoq saar from the advance 2.1% print. … we revise up our 3Q GDP forecast to a trend-like 1.7% qoq saar from 1.2%. [Aug 2 estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman Sachs:
We lowered our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by one tenth to +1.8% (qoq ar). [Aug 2 estimate]
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 1.6% for 2019:Q3. [Aug 2 estimate].
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2019 is 1.9 percent August 2, down from 2.2 percent on August 1. [Aug 2 estimate]
CR Note: These very early estimates suggest real GDP growth will be in the high 1% range annualized in Q3.