Thursday, August 01, 2019

Goldman: July Payrolls Preview

by Calculated Risk on 8/01/2019 03:04:00 PM

A few brief excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill:

We estimate nonfarm payrolls increased 190k in July, 25k above consensus of +165k. While July employer surveys declined on net, jobless claims and job availability measures remain at very strong levels, and we also expect a boost from Census hiring worth 10-20k. …

We estimate the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7%. … We estimate average hourly earnings increased 0.2% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year rate.
emphasis added
CR Note: It will be important to adjust for decennial Census hiring.