by Calculated Risk on 8/06/2019 09:19:00 AM

Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for June. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for May. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).

From CoreLogic: U.S. Home Price Insights Through June 2019 with Forecasts from July 2019

Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 3.4% in June 2019 compared with June 2018 and increased month over month by 0.4% in June 2019 compared with May 2019 (revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results).

The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will increase by 5.2% on a year-over-year basis from June 2019 to June 2020. On a month-over-month basis, home prices are expected to increase by 0.5% from June 2019 to July 2019.

“Tepid home sales have caused home prices to rise at the slowest pace for the first half of a year since 2011. Price growth continues to be faster for lower-priced homes, as first-time buyers and investors are both actively seeking entry-level homes. With incomes up and current mortgage rates about 0.8 percentage points below what they were one year ago, home sales should have a better sales pace in the second half of 2019 than a year earlier, leading to a quickening in price growth over the next year.”, Dr. Frank Nothaft, Chief Economist for CoreLogic
emphasis added

CR Note: The CoreLogic YoY increase had been in the 5% to 7% range for several years, before slowing last year.

The year-over-year comparison has been positive for more than seven years since turning positive year-over-year in February 2012.