by Calculated Risk on 8/06/2019 09:19:00 AM
Tuesday, August 06, 2019
Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for June. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for May. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).
From CoreLogic: U.S. Home Price Insights Through June 2019 with Forecasts from July 2019
Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 3.4% in June 2019 compared with June 2018 and increased month over month by 0.4% in June 2019 compared with May 2019 (revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results).CR Note: The CoreLogic YoY increase had been in the 5% to 7% range for several years, before slowing last year.
The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will increase by 5.2% on a year-over-year basis from June 2019 to June 2020. On a month-over-month basis, home prices are expected to increase by 0.5% from June 2019 to July 2019.
“Tepid home sales have caused home prices to rise at the slowest pace for the first half of a year since 2011. Price growth continues to be faster for lower-priced homes, as first-time buyers and investors are both actively seeking entry-level homes. With incomes up and current mortgage rates about 0.8 percentage points below what they were one year ago, home sales should have a better sales pace in the second half of 2019 than a year earlier, leading to a quickening in price growth over the next year.”, Dr. Frank Nothaft, Chief Economist for CoreLogic
The year-over-year comparison has been positive for more than seven years since turning positive year-over-year in February 2012.