by Calculated Risk on 7/02/2019 11:39:00 AM
Tuesday, July 02, 2019
According to NBER, the four longest expansions in U.S. history are:
1) From a trough in June 2009 to today, July 2019 (121 months and counting).
2) From a trough in March 1991 to a peak in March 2001 (120 months).
3) From a trough in February 1961 to a peak in December 1969 (106 months).
4) From a trough in November 1982 to a peak in July 1990 (92 months).
So the current U.S. expansion is the longest on record.
As I noted in late 2017 in Is a Recession Imminent? (one of the five questions I'm frequently asked)
Expansions don't die of old age! There is a very good chance this will become the longest expansion in history.A key reason the current expansion has been so long is that housing didn't contribute for the first few years of the expansion. Also the housing recovery was sluggish for a few more years after the bottom in 2011. This was because of the huge overhang of foreclosed properties coming on the market.