Thursday, July 18, 2019

Philly Fed Mfg "Current Manufacturing Indicators Suggest Continued Growth in July"

by Calculated Risk on 7/18/2019 08:44:00 AM

From the Philly Fed: July 2019 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey

Manufacturing conditions in the region showed improvement this month, according to firms responding to the July Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s indexes for general activity, new orders, shipments, and employment remained positive and increased from their June readings. Most of the survey’s future activity indexes increased, suggesting improved optimism about growth for the next six months.

The diffusion index for current general activity more than recovered from its decline last month, increasing from 0.3 in June to 21.8 this month.
...
The firms reported increases in manufacturing employment and longer workweeks this month. Over 36 percent of the firms reported higher employment, compared with 25 percent last month. Only 6 percent reported decreases in employment this month. The current employment index increased 15 points to 30.0, its highest reading since October 2017.
emphasis added
This was well above the consensus forecast.  Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index:

Fed Manufacturing Surveys and ISM PMI Click on graph for larger image.

The New York and Philly Fed surveys are averaged together (yellow, through July), and five Fed surveys are averaged (blue, through June) including New York, Philly, Richmond, Dallas and Kansas City. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) PMI (red) is through June (right axis).

These early reports suggest the ISM manufacturing index will bounce back in July.