Monday, July 22, 2019

Chicago Fed "Index Points to Economic Growth near Historical Trend in June"

by Calculated Risk on 7/22/2019 08:35:00 AM

From the Chicago Fed: Index Points to Economic Growth near Historical Trend in June

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) ticked up to –0.02 in June from –0.03 in May. One of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased from May, and two of the four categories made negative contributions to the index in June. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, ticked up to –0.26 in June from –0.27 in May.
emphasis added
This graph shows the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (three month moving average) since 1967.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index Click on graph for larger image.

This suggests economic activity was below the historical trend in June (using the three-month average).

According to the Chicago Fed:
The index is a weighted average of 85 indicators of growth in national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data: 1) production and income; 2) employment, unemployment, and hours; 3) personal consumption and housing; and 4) sales, orders, and inventories.
...
A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth.