Tuesday, July 30, 2019

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 3.4% year-over-year in May

by Calculated Risk on 7/30/2019 09:10:00 AM

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for May ("May" is a 3 month average of March, April and May prices).

This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.

Note: Case-Shiller reports Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), I use the SA data for the graphs.

From S&P: Annual Home Price Gains Dip to 3.4% According to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 3.4% annual gain in May, down from 3.5% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 2.2%, down from 2.3% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 2.4% year-over-year gain, down from 2.5% in the previous month.

Las Vegas, Phoenix and Tampa reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities. In May, Las Vegas led the way with a 6.4% year-over-year price increase, followed by Phoenix with a 5.7% increase, and Tampa with a 5.1% increase. Seven of the 20 cities reported greater price increases in the year ending May 2019 versus the year ending April 2019.
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Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 0.8% in May. The 10-City Composite posted a 0.5% increase and the 20-City Composite reported a 0.6% increase for the month. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index recorded a 0.2% month-over-month increase in May. The 10-City and the 20-City Composites both reported a 0.1% increase. In May, 19 of 20 cities reported increases before seasonal adjustment, while 13 of 20 cities reported increases after seasonal adjustment.

“Nationally, year-over-year home price gains were lower in May than in April, but not dramatically so and a broad-based moderation continued,” says Philip Murphy, Managing Director and Global Head of Index Governance at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Among 20 major U.S. city home price indices, the average YOY gain has been declining for the past year or so and now stands at the moderate nominal YOY rate of 3.1%.
emphasis added
Case-Shiller House Prices Indices Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index is up 1.1% from the bubble peak, and up 0.1% in May (SA).

The Composite 20 index is 4.5% above the bubble peak, and up 0.1% (SA) in May.

The National index is 13.2% above the bubble peak (SA), and up 0.3% (SA) in May.  The National index is up 53.0% from the post-bubble low set in December 2011 (SA).

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices The second graph shows the Year over year change in all three indices.

The Composite 10 SA is up 2.2% compared to May 2018.  The Composite 20 SA is up 2.4% year-over-year.

The National index SA is up 3.4% year-over-year.

Note: According to the data, prices increased in 14 of 20 cities month-over-month seasonally adjusted.

I'll have more later.