by Calculated Risk on 7/01/2019 08:27:00 AM
Monday, July 01, 2019
Black Knight Mortgage Monitor for May: Record Low National Delinquency Rate, Early Delinquency Rate Increasing
Black Knight released their Mortgage Monitor report for May today. According to Black Knight, 3.36% of mortgages were delinquent in May, down from 3.64% in May 2018. Black Knight also reported that 0.49% of mortgages were in the foreclosure process, down from 0.59% a year ago.
This gives a total of 3.85% delinquent or in foreclosure.
Press Release: Black Knight Mortgage Monitor: In May, Adjustable-Rate Mortgage Prepayments Highest Since 2007; Prepays on 2018 Vintage Loans Up Three Times Over Past Four Months
Today, the Data & Analytics division of Black Knight, Inc. released its latest Mortgage Monitor Report, based upon the company’s industry-leading mortgage performance, housing and public records datasets. This month, the company took an in-depth look at the resurgence in mortgage prepayments spurred by lower interest rates and seasonal increases in home sale activity. As Black Knight Data & Analytics President Ben Graboske explained, prepayments are up across the board, but some cohorts are seeing greater levels of activity than others.Click on graph for larger image.
“Overall, prepayment activity – largely driven by home sales and mortgage refinances – has more than doubled over the past four months,” said Graboske. “It’s now at the highest levels we’ve seen since the fall of 2016, when rates began their steep upward climb. While we’ve observed increases across nearly every investor type, product type, credit score bucket and vintage, some changes stand out. For instance, prepayments among fixed-rate loans have hewed close to the overall market average, rising by more than two times over the past four months. However, ARM prepayment rates have now jumped to their highest level since 2007 as borrowers have sought to shed the uncertainty of their adjustable-rate products for the security of a low, fixed interest rate over the long haul.”
“Likewise, while all loan vintages have seen prepayment activity increase, they are all dwarfed by 2018. Prepays among the 2018 vintages have jumped by more than 300% over the past four months and are now nearly 50% higher than 2014, the next highest vintage. As of June 27, there were 1.5 million refinance candidates from the 2018 vintage alone, accounting for one of every six such candidates in the market, matching the total from the 2013-2017 vintages combined. All in all, some 8.2 million homeowners with mortgages could now both benefit from and likely qualify for a refinance, including more than 35% of those who took out their mortgages just last year. Early estimates suggest closed refinances rose by more than 30% from April 2019, with May’s volumes estimated to be three times higher than the 10-year low seen in November 2018. Given that interest rates have fallen further from May to June – and that we’ve yet to see the calendar year peak in terms of housing turnover related-prepayments – we may very well continue to see rising prepayment activity again in June’s mortgage data.”
Here is a graph from the Mortgage Monitor that shows the National delinquency rate over time.
From Black Knight:
• After a slow start to the year, the national delinquency rate has now set record lows in each of the past two monthsThe second graph shows the early delinquency rates:
• As we've previously reported, delinquencies fell by less than 6% over the span of Q1 2019, the lowest first quarter improvement on record
• At 3.36%, delinquencies are more than 20% (-0.88%) below their pre-recession (20002005) average
• Early-stage delinquency rates have been on the rise since mid-2017, with a sharp increase in such delinquencies on purchase loans beginning in early 2018There is much more in the mortgage monitor.
• The 6-month delinquency rate of recent originations is the highest it’s been since 2010, while the same metric shows the 6-month delinquency rate among purchase loans it at its highest level since mid-2012
• Examining more recent originations (those from June to November 2018, specifically) we see that 6-month delinquency rates among purchase loans are, on average, 50% above the year prior, suggesting this trend may strengthen
• That said, early-stage delinquencies are still well below pre-recession averages, but the sharp rise is worth keeping an eye on