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Friday, June 14, 2019

Q2 GDP Forecasts: Around 2%

by Calculated Risk on 6/14/2019 11:37:00 AM

From Merrill Lynch:

Core retail sales popped 0.5% mom in May with positive revisions. Industrial production and inventories were also solid. The data lifted 2Q GDP tracking by 0.4pp to 2.5% qoq saar. 1Q GDP tracking was unchanged at 3.2%.[June 14 estimate]
emphasis added
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 1.4% for 2019:Q2 and 1.7% for 2019:Q3 [June 14 estimate].
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2019 is 2.1 percent on June 14, up from 1.4 percent on June 7. After this morning's retail sales release from the U.S. Census Bureau, and this morning's industrial production report from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the nowcast of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth increased from 3.2 percent to 3.9 percent. [June 14 estimate]
CR Note: These estimates suggest real GDP growth will be around 2% annualized in Q2.