Friday, June 28, 2019

Q2 GDP Forecasts: Around 1.5%

by Calculated Risk on 6/28/2019 11:32:00 AM

From Goldman Sachs:

The May core PCE price index increased 0.19% month-over-month, close to expectations, but the year-over-year exceeded consensus by a tenth reflecting the price revisions in yesterday’s GDP report. Personal spending increased by 0.4% and was revised higher in April, and the personal saving rate remained flat at 6.1%. We left our Q2 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +1.5% (qoq ar). [June 28 estimate]
emphasis added
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 1.3% for 2019:Q2 and 1.2% for 2019:Q3. [June 28 estimate].
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2019 is 1.5 percent on June 28, down from 1.9 percent on June 26. After this morning’s personal income and outlays release from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the nowcast of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth decreased from 3.9 percent to 3.7 percent. [June 28 estimate]
CR Note: These estimates suggest real GDP growth will be around 1.5% annualized in Q2.