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Friday, June 07, 2019

Q2 GDP Forecasts: 1% to 2% range

by Calculated Risk on 6/07/2019 12:59:00 PM

From Merrill Lynch:

The data added 0.2pp to 2Q GDP tracking up to 2.1% qoq saar, while 1Q remained at 3.2% [June 6 estimate]
emphasis added
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 1.0% for 2019:Q2 and 1.3% for 2019:Q3. [June 7 estimate].
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2019 is 1.4 percent on June 7, down from 1.5 percent on June 6. The nowcast of second-quarter real government expenditures growth decreased from 2.0 percent to 1.7 percent after this morning's employment report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. [June 7 estimate]
CR Note: These early estimates suggest real GDP growth will be in the 1% to 2% range annualized in Q2.