Thursday, June 06, 2019

Goldman: May Payrolls Preview

by Calculated Risk on 6/06/2019 04:02:00 PM

A few brief excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill:

We estimate nonfarm payrolls increased 195k in May (vs. consensus of 178k), as employment surveys remain at healthy levels and the payroll survey period largely preceded the recent trade war escalation. …

We expect an unchanged unemployment rate in tomorrow’s report (3.6%) … We estimate a 0.2% rise in average hourly earnings (mom sa) that lowers the year-over-year rate a tenth to 3.1%
emphasis added