Wednesday, June 05, 2019

Fed's Beige Book: Economic Growth "Modest", Labor Market "Tight"

by Calculated Risk on 6/05/2019 02:04:00 PM

Fed's Beige Book "This report was prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis based on information collected on or before May 24, 2019."

Economic activity expanded at a modest pace overall from April through mid-May, a slight improvement over the previous period. Almost all Districts reported some growth, and a few saw moderate gains in activity. Manufacturing reports were generally positive, but some Districts noted signs of slowing activity and a more uncertain outlook among contacts. Residential construction and real estate both showed overall growth, but both sectors saw wide variation in sentiment across Districts. Reports on consumer spending were generally positive but tempered. Tourism activity was stronger, especially in the Southeast, but vehicle sales were lower, according to reporting Districts. Loan demand was mixed but indicated growth. Agricultural conditions remained weak overall, but a few Districts reported some improvements. The outlook for the coming months was solidly positive but modest, with little variation among reporting Districts.
...
Employment continued to increase nationwide, with most Districts reporting modest or moderate job growth and others reporting slight growth, an assessment similar to the previous reporting period. Solid hiring demand was noted for retail, business services, technical, manufacturing, and construction jobs and by staffing agencies in general. However, stronger employment growth continued to be constrained by tight labor markets, with Districts citing shortages of both high- and low-skill workers. Competition for workers reportedly applied some wage pressures across a wide range of occupations and induced improvements in benefits to attract more workers and to improve retention of existing employees, according to several Districts. However, overall wage pressures remained relatively subdued given low unemployment rates; a majority of Districts reported modest or moderate wage growth.
emphasis added