Sometimes people ask me when I'll make another call. I don't know; I'm very data dependent!
But I was wondering if these count? Back in December 2015, I wrote The Endless Parade of Recession Calls. I concluded:
Looking at the economic data, the odds of a recession in 2016 are very low (extremely unlikely in my view). Someday I'll make another recession call, but I'm not even on recession watch now.That was correct. And earlier this year I wrote an update to that post.
My view now: a recession in 2019 is very unlikely. I'm still not on recession watch!So far that looks correct too.
Someday I'll make another "Big" call, but I don't know when.