Friday, May 31, 2019

Q2 GDP Forecasts: mid-1% Range

by Calculated Risk on 5/31/2019 11:18:00 AM

From Merrill Lynch:

The data bumped up our 2Q GDP tracking estimate by 0.2pp to 1.8% qoq saar. [May 31 estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman Sachs:
We lowered our Q2 GDP tracking estimate by two tenths to +1.1% (qoq ar). [Updated: May 30 estimate]
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 1.5% for 2019:Q2. News from this week's data releases increased the nowcast for 2019:Q2 by 0.1 percentage point. [May 31 estimate].
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2019 is 1.2 percent on May 31, down from 1.3 percent on May 24. A slight increase in the nowcast of the contribution of personal consumption expenditures to second-quarter real GDP growth from 1.99 percentage points to 2.03 percentage points after this morning’s personal income and outlays report from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis was more than offset by a decline in the nowcast of second-quarter real nonresidential equipment investment growth from 0.7 percent to -1.4 percent after yesterday’s and today’s economic releases. [May 31 estimate]
CR Note: These early estimates suggest real GDP growth will be in the 1% to 2% range annualized in Q2.