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Friday, May 24, 2019

Q2 GDP Forecasts: Mid 1% Range

by Calculated Risk on 5/24/2019 11:25:00 AM

From Merrill Lynch:

We lowered 2Q GDP tracking by 0.2pp to 1.6%, while 1Q remained unchanged at 2.9% [May 24 estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman Sachs:
We lowered our Q2 GDP tracking estimate by two tenths to +1.3% and our past-quarter GDP tracking estimate for Q1 by one tenth to +3.0% (qoq ar). [Updated: May 24 estimate]
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 1.4% for 2019:Q2. News from this week's data releases decreased the nowcast for 2019:Q2 by 0.4 percentage point. Negative surprises from the Advance Durable Goods Report drove most of the decrease. [May 24 estimate].
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2019 is 1.3 percent on May 24, up from 1.2 percent on May 16. [May 24 estimate]
CR Note: These early estimates suggest real GDP growth will be in the mid-1% range annualized in Q2.