Friday, May 17, 2019

Q2 GDP Forecasts: 1% to 2%

by Calculated Risk on 5/17/2019 12:47:00 PM

From Merrill Lynch:

Based on the latest high frequency data, 2Q GDP is already tracking only 1.8%, down 0.3pp from our prior forecast. [May 17 estimate]
emphasis added
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 1.8% for 2019:Q2. [May 17 estimate].
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2019 is 1.2 percent on May 16, up from 1.1 percent on May 15. [May 16 estimate]
CR Note: These early estimates suggest real GDP growth will be under 2% annualized in Q2.