Thursday, May 30, 2019

Q1 GDP Revised Down to 3.1% Annual Rate

by Calculated Risk on 5/30/2019 08:35:00 AM

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 1st quarter 2019 (second estimate); Corporate Profits, 1st quarter 2019 (preliminary estimate)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.1 percent in the first quarter of 2019, according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 2.2 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP in the first quarter was 3.2 percent. Today's estimate reflects downward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment and private inventory investment and upward revisions to exports and personal consumption expenditures (PCE). Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised up; the general picture of economic growth remains the same
emphasis added
PCE growth was revised up from 1.2% to 1.3%. Residential investment was revised down from -2.8% to -3.5%. This was close to the consensus forecast.

Here is a Comparison of Second and Advance Estimates.