by Calculated Risk on 5/23/2019 10:19:00 AM
Thursday, May 23, 2019
The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 692 thousand.
The previous three months were revised up.
"Sales of new single‐family houses in April 2019 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 673,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 6.9 percent below the revised March rate of 723,000, but is 7.0 percent above the April 2018 estimate of 629,000."Click on graph for larger image.
The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.
Even with the increase in sales over the last several years, new home sales are still somewhat low historically.
The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.
The months of supply increased in April to 5.9 months from 5.6 months in March.
The all time record was 12.1 months of supply in January 2009.
This is near the top of the normal range (less than 6 months supply is normal).
"The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of April was 332,000. This represents a supply of 5.9 months at the current sales rate."On inventory, according to the Census Bureau:
"A house is considered for sale when a permit to build has been issued in permit-issuing places or work has begun on the footings or foundation in nonpermit areas and a sales contract has not been signed nor a deposit accepted."Starting in 1973 the Census Bureau broke this down into three categories: Not Started, Under Construction, and Completed.
The third graph shows the three categories of inventory starting in 1973.
The inventory of completed homes for sale is still somewhat low, and the combined total of completed and under construction is a little low.
The last graph shows sales NSA (monthly sales, not seasonally adjusted annual rate).
In April 2019 (red column), 66 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). Last year, 61 thousand homes were sold in April.
The all time high for April was 116 thousand in 2005, and the all time low for April was 30 thousand in 2011.
This was close to expectations of 678 thousand sales SAAR, and sales in the three previous months were revised up significantly. And sales in March were revised up to a new cycle high. I'll have more later today.
Posted by Calculated Risk on 5/23/2019 10:19:00 AM