Friday, May 10, 2019

Mortgage Rates and Ten Year Yield

by Calculated Risk on 5/10/2019 02:43:00 PM

With the ten year yield at 2.45%, and based on an historical relationship, 30-year rates should currently be around 4.4%.

As of yesterday, Mortgage News Daily reported: Mortgage Rates Unchanged to Slightly Lower

Mortgage rates were just slightly lower on average today with some lenders flat and others distinctly lower. [30YR FIXED - 4.25%]
emphasis added
The graph shows the relationship between the monthly 10 year Treasury Yield and 30 year mortgage rates from the Freddie Mac survey.

Mortgage rates and 10 year Treasury YieldCurrently the 10 year Treasury yield is at 2.45%, and 30 year mortgage rates were at 4.10% according to the Freddie Mac survey this week.

To fall to 4% on the Freddie Mac survey, and based on the historical relationship, the Ten Year yield would have to fall to around 2.1%

To increase to 5% (on the Freddie Mac survey), based on the historical relationship, the Ten Year yield would have to increase to about 3.3%.