Thursday, May 30, 2019

Merrill on May NFP: "A modest slowing in employment activity"

by Calculated Risk on 5/30/2019 12:29:00 PM

A few excerpts from a Merrill Lynch research note:

We forecast nonfarm payroll employment growth of 180k in the May Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) employment report … If our nonfarm payrolls forecast proves correct, it would suggest a modest slowing in employment activity in May ...

We see reasons for some slowing in employment activity in May. The latest escalation of trade tensions... Also, the cyclical slowdown in the auto sector.

Elsewhere, we expect the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 3.6%