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Friday, May 17, 2019

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in April

by Calculated Risk on 5/17/2019 07:19:00 PM

From housing economist Tom Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in April

Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.31 million in April, up 1.9% from March’s preliminary estimate (which was below what state and local realtor data would have suggested), and down 2.2% from last April’s seasonally adjusted pace. Unadjusted sales last month should be relatively flat from last April, with the SA/NSA gap reflecting this April’s higher business day count relative to last April’s.

On the inventory front, local realtor/MLS data, as well as data from other inventory trackers, suggest that the inventory of existing homes for sale at the end of March should be about 4.4% higher than last March.

Finally, local realtor/MLS data suggest that the median US existing single-family home sales price last month was up by about 3.5% from a year earlier.

CR Note: Existing home sales for April are scheduled to be released on Tuesday, May 21st. The consensus is NAR will report sales of 5.36 million SAAR.