by Calculated Risk on 5/31/2019 04:17:00 PM
Friday, May 31, 2019
Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency rate decreased to 0.72% in April, from 0.74% in March. The serious delinquency rate is down from 1.09% in April 2018.
These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure".
The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59%.
This is the lowest serious delinquency rate for Fannie Mae since August 2007.
Click on graph for larger image
By vintage, for loans made in 2004 or earlier (3% of portfolio), 2.64% are seriously delinquent. For loans made in 2005 through 2008 (4% of portfolio), 4.45% are seriously delinquent, For recent loans, originated in 2009 through 2018 (93% of portfolio), only 0.33% are seriously delinquent. So Fannie is still working through a few poor performing loans from the bubble years.
The increase late last year in the delinquency rate was due to the hurricanes - there were no worries about the overall market.
I expect the serious delinquency rate will probably decline to 0.4 to 0.6 percent or so to a cycle bottom.
Note: Freddie Mac reported earlier.