Friday, April 05, 2019

Q1 GDP Forecasts: 1.5% to 2.0% Range

by Calculated Risk on 4/05/2019 12:22:00 PM

From Merrill Lynch:

We are tracking 1.9% qoq saar for 1Q GDP growth. Retail sales and capex data this week had little impact on tracking, while strong construction and inventory reports mostly offset consumption weakness at the end of the prior week. [April 5 estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman Sachs:
Our Q1 GDP tracking estimate rose by one tenth to +1.5% (qoq ar). [April 5 estimate]
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 1.4% for 2019:Q1 and 1.9% for 2019:Q2 [Apr 5 estimate].
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2019 is 2.1 percent on April 2 [Apr 2 estimate]
CR Note: These estimates suggest real GDP growth will be in the 1.5% to 2.0% range annualized in Q1.