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Thursday, April 18, 2019

Philly Fed Mfg "Continued to Grow" in April

by Calculated Risk on 4/18/2019 10:28:00 AM

From the Philly Fed: April 2019 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey

Regional manufacturing activity continued to grow in April, according to results from this month’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. Although the survey’s indicators for general activity and shipments fell from their readings last month, the indicators for new orders, employment, and the workweek improved. The survey’s indexes for future activity and employment continued to moderate, but the surveyed firms remained generally optimistic about growth over the next six months.

The index for current manufacturing activity in the region decreased from a reading of 13.7 in March to 8.5 this month.
The firms continued to add to their payrolls this month. The current employment index increased from a reading of 9.6 in March to 14.7 this month.
emphasis added
Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index:

Fed Manufacturing Surveys and ISM PMI Click on graph for larger image.

The New York and Philly Fed surveys are averaged together (yellow, through April), and five Fed surveys are averaged (blue, through March) including New York, Philly, Richmond, Dallas and Kansas City. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) PMI (red) is through March (right axis).

These early reports suggest the ISM manufacturing index will show expansion again in April, and probably at about the same pace as in March.