Thursday, April 04, 2019

Goldman: March Payrolls Preview

by Calculated Risk on 4/04/2019 02:55:00 PM

A few brief excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill:

We estimate nonfarm payrolls increased 190k in March ... Our forecast reflects a boost from weather of around 20k ... While we believe the trend in job growth has slowed from last year’s strong pace, renewed declines in jobless claims and the resilience in business surveys suggest that the trend remains nicely above potential. …

We estimate the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.8% … We expect a 0.3% rise in average hourly earnings (mom sa) but we look for the year-over-year rate to fall a tenth to 3.3%
emphasis added