by Calculated Risk on 4/30/2019 09:10:00 AM
Tuesday, April 30, 2019
S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for February ("February" is a 3 month average of December, January and February prices).
This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.
Note: Case-Shiller reports Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), I use the SA data for the graphs.
From S&P: S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Shows Annual Gains Continue to Decline
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 4.0% annual gain in February, down from 4.2% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 2.6%, down from 3.1% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 3.0% year-over-year gain, down from 3.5% in the previous month.Click on graph for larger image.
Las Vegas, Phoenix and Tampa reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities. In February, Las Vegas led the way with a 9.7% year-over-year price increase, followed by Phoenix with a 6.7% increase, and Tampa with a 5.4% increase. Only one of the 20 cities reported greater price increases in the year ending February 2019 versus the year ending January 2019.
Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 0.2% in February. The 10-City and 20-City Composites both reported 0.2% increases for the month. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index recorded a 0.3% month-over-month increase in February. The 10-City and the 20-City Composites both posted 0.2% month-over-month increases. In February, 14 of 20 cities reported increases before seasonal adjustment, while 17 of 20 cities reported increases after seasonal adjustment.
“The pace of increases for home prices continues to slow,” says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Homes began their climb in 2012 and accelerated until late 2013 when annual increases reached double digits. Subsequently, increases slowed until now when the National Index is up 4% in the last 12 months. Sales of existing single family homes have recovered since 2010 and reached their peak one year ago in February 2018. Home sales drifted down over the last year except for a one-month pop in February 2019. Sales of new homes, housing starts, and residential investment had similar weak trajectories over the last year. Mortgage rates are down one-half to three-quarters of a percentage point since late 2018.
“The largest year-over-year price increase is 9.7% in Las Vegas; last year, the largest gain was 12.7% in Seattle. Regional patterns are shifting. The three California cities of Los Angeles, San Francisco and San Diego have the three slowest price increases over the last year. Chicago, New York and Cleveland saw only slightly larger prices increases than California. Prices generally rose faster in inland cities than on either the coasts or the Great Lakes. Aside from Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Tampa, which saw the fastest gains, Atlanta, Denver, and Minneapolis all saw prices rise more than 4% -- twice the rate of inflation.”
The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).
The Composite 10 index is up slightly from the bubble peak, and up 0.1% in February (SA).
The Composite 20 index is 4.0% above the bubble peak, and up 0.2% (SA) in February.
The National index is 12.4% above the bubble peak (SA), and up 0.3% (SA) in February. The National index is up 52.0% from the post-bubble low set in December 2011 (SA).
The second graph shows the Year over year change in all three indices.
The Composite 10 SA is up 2.5% compared to February 2018. The Composite 20 SA is up 2.9% year-over-year.
The National index SA is up 4.0% year-over-year.
Note: According to the data, prices increased in 17 of 20 cities month-over-month seasonally adjusted.
I'll have more later.