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Friday, March 01, 2019

Q1 GDP Forecasts: Starting Low

by Calculated Risk on 3/01/2019 12:09:00 PM

From Merrill Lynch:

Following 4Q GDP, we revise down 1Q 2019 growth to 1.0% from 1.5%. The revision largely reflects greater drag from inventories, with some adjustments to other components [Mar 1 estimate]
emphasis added
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report.

The Q1 2019 nowcast is for 0.9% real GDP growth (Mar 1 estimate).

And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The initial GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2019 is 0.3 percent on March 1. [Mar 1 estimate]
CR Note: These very early estimates suggest GDP around 1% in Q1.