Friday, March 29, 2019

Q1 GDP Forecasts: Mid 1% Range

by Calculated Risk on 3/29/2019 02:25:00 PM

From Merrill Lynch:

Consumer spending inched up only 0.1% mom in Jan, and a downwardly revised Dec provided a weaker handoff into the quarter. The data sliced 0.3pp from 1Q GDP tracking, bringing our estimate down to 1.7% qoq saar [March 29 estimate]
emphasis added
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 1.3% for 2019:Q1 and 1.6% for 2019:Q2 [Mar 29 estimate].
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2019 is 1.7 percent on March 29, up from 1.5 percent on March 27. A decrease in the nowcast of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 0.9 percent to 0.5 percent after this morning’s personal income and outlays release from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis was more than offset by increases in the nowcasts of real nonresidential equipment investment growth, real residential investment growth, and the contribution of inventory investment to first-quarter real GDP growth. [Mar 13 estimate]
CR Note: These estimates suggest real GDP growth will be in the 1% to 2% range annualized in Q1.