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Monday, March 18, 2019

Goldman: FOMC Preview

by Calculated Risk on 3/18/2019 02:53:00 PM

Note: Over the weekend I wrote some thoughts on the FOMC meeting this week.

A few excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economists David Mericle and Jan Hatzius: March FOMC Preview: Are We There Yet?

• The main question for the March meeting is just how far Fed officials will take the new theme of patience and the new perspective on inflation in their next set of projections.

• The economic projections are likely to change only modestly. We expect a downgrade to the 2019 GDP growth projections ...

• The FOMC is also likely to announce that balance sheet runoff will conclude at the end of Q3 or in Q4. ...

• Our own forecast continues to be for a hike in December of this year ... the risks are tilted toward delay and our probability-weighted forecast is now just 0.4 net hikes for 2019.