Thursday, March 07, 2019

Goldman: February Payrolls Preview

by Calculated Risk on 3/07/2019 04:17:00 PM

A few brief excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill:

We estimate nonfarm payrolls increased 150k in February ... expect a drag of at least 40k from above-average snowfall during the February survey week.
...
We expect the unemployment rate to move back down a tenth to 3.9% in tomorrow’s report ... the return of furloughed government workers should exert downward pressure on the jobless rate … We estimate that average hourly earnings increased 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year.
emphasis added