Friday, February 01, 2019

Q4 GDP Forecasts: Mid 2s

by Bill McBride on 2/01/2019 02:02:00 PM

The BEA has not yet announced a new release date for the Q4 advanced GDP report.

From Merrill Lynch:

data cut 0.5pp from 4Q GDP tracking, bringing us down to 2.3% qoq saar. [Feb 1 estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman Sachs:
we left our Q4 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +2.5% (qoq ar). [Feb 1 estimate]
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The GDP release scheduled for this week was postponed as a result of the partial shutdown of the federal government. The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2.6% for 2018:Q4 and 2.4% for 2019:Q1. [Feb 1 estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2018 is 2.5 percent on February 1, down from 2.7 percent on January 31. [Feb 1 estimate]
CR Note: These estimates suggest GDP in the mid 2s for Q4.