Saturday, January 05, 2019

Schedule for Week of January 6th

by Bill McBride on 1/05/2019 08:11:00 AM

Special Note on Government Shutdown: If the Government shutdown continues, then some releases will be delayed. As an example, this week, the report on International Trade (trade deficit)  will not be released if the government remains shutdown.

The key report this week is the December CPI report on Friday.

----- Monday, Jan 7th -----

10:00 AM: the ISM non-Manufacturing Index for December.  The consensus is for a decrease to 58.4 from 60.7.

----- Tuesday, Jan 8th -----

6:00 AM: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for December.

U.S. Trade Deficit8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for November from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through the most recent report. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

The consensus is the trade deficit to be $53.9 billion.  The U.S. trade deficit was at $55.5 billion in October.

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey10:00 AM ET: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for November from the BLS.

This graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (purple), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

Jobs openings increased in October to 7.079 million from 6.960 million in September.

The number of job openings (yellow) were up 17% year-over-year, and Quits were up 9% year-over-year.

3:00 PM: Consumer Credit from the Federal Reserve.

----- Wednesday, Jan 9th -----

7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

2:00 PM: FOMC Minutes, Meeting of Dec 18-19

----- Thursday, Jan 10th -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 222 thousand initial claims, down from 231 thousand the previous week.

8:30 AM: The Producer Price Index for December from the BLS.

12:45 PM: Discussion, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, At the Economic Club of Washington, D.C., Washington, D.C.

----- Friday, Jan 11th -----

8:30 AM: The Consumer Price Index for November from the BLS. The consensus is for 0.1% decrease in CPI, and a 0.2% increase in core CPI.

----- List of Key Delayed Releases ----

New Home Sales (Census) for November from the Census Bureau. The consensus was for 560 thousand SAAR, up from 544 thousand in October.

Construction Spending (Census) for November. The consensus was for a 0.3% increase in construction spending.

Light vehicle sales (BEA) for December. The consensus was for light vehicle sales to be 17.2 million SAAR in December, down from 17.4 million in November (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).