Saturday, January 26, 2019

Schedule for Week of January 27th

by Calculated Risk on 1/26/2019 08:11:00 AM

Special Note on Government Opening: Now that the Government is open, the data releases that were postponed will be released soon. The BEA and Census will probably provide an updated schedule early next week. Some releases on the weekly schedule below will probably be delayed (like Q4 GDP).

The key reports scheduled for this week are the January employment report and Q4 GDP.  Other key indicators include December Personal Income and Outlays, November Case-Shiller house prices, and January vehicle sales.

For manufacturing, the January ISM manufacturing survey, and the Dallas Fed manufacturing survey will be released.

The FOMC meets this week, and no change to policy is expected at this meeting.

----- Monday, Jan 28th -----

8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for December. This is a composite index of other data.

10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for January. This is the last of regional manufacturing surveys for January.

----- Tuesday, Jan 29th -----

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices9:00 AM ET: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for November.

This graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted National Index, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through the most recent report (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The consensus is for a 4.9% year-over-year increase in the Comp 20 index for November.

10:00 AM: the Q4 2018 Housing Vacancies and Homeownership from the Census Bureau.

----- Wednesday, Jan 30th -----

7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for January. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 167,000 payroll jobs added in January, down from 271,000 added in December.

8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product, 4th quarter 2018 (Advance estimate). The consensus is that real GDP increased 2.6% annualized in Q4, down from 3.4% in Q3.

10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for December. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in the index.

2:00 PM: FOMC Meeting Announcement. No change to policy is expected at this meeting.

2:30 PM: Fed Chair Jerome Powell holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement.

----- Thursday, Jan 31st -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 217 thousand initial claims, up from 213 thousand the previous week.

8:30 AM ET: Personal Income and Outlays for December. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.3% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.2%.

9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for January. The consensus is for a reading of 62.5, down from 65.4 in December.

----- Friday, Feb 1st -----

Year-over-year change employment8:30 AM: Employment Report for January.   The consensus is for 158,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 3.9%.

There were 213,000 jobs added in December, and the unemployment rate was at 3.9%.

This graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.

In December the year-over-year change was 2.638 million jobs.

ISM PMI10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for January. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 54.0, down from 54.1 in December.

Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index.

The PMI was at 54.1% in December, the employment index was at 56.2%, and the new orders index was at 51.1%.

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for December. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in construction spending.

Vehicle SalesAll day: Light vehicle sales for January. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to be 17.2 million SAAR in January, unchanged from 17.2 million in December (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the November sales rate (The BEA hasn't released December sales yet).