Friday, January 25, 2019

Q4 GDP Forecasts: Mid-to-High 2s

by Bill McBride on 1/25/2019 11:44:00 AM

Update: GDPNow model has been updated.

The Q4 advanced GDP release is scheduled for next Wednesday, but even if the government is opened this weekend, that release will probably be delayed.

From Merrill Lynch:

4Q GDP tracking remains at 2.8%. With the shutdown ongoing, we revise down 1Q GDP to 2.0% from 2.2% [Jan 25 estimate]
emphasis added
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2.6% for 2018:Q4 and 2.2% for 2019:Q1. [Jan 25 estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The current GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2018 is 2.7 percent, down from 2.8 percent on January 18. The nowcast of fourth-quarter real residential investment growth declined from -2.6 percent to -4.3 after the existing-home sales release on Tuesday, January 22, from the National Association of Realtors. [Jan 25 estimate]
CR Note: These estimates suggest GDP in the mid-to-high 2s for Q4.