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Friday, January 18, 2019

Q4 GDP Forecasts: Mid-to-High 2s

by Calculated Risk on 1/18/2019 02:48:00 PM

From Merrill Lynch:

4Q GDP tracking remains at 2.8%. We forecast 1Q GDP growth of 2.2%, but downside risks are emerging due to the government shutdown. [Jan 18 estimate]
emphasis added
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2.6% for 2018:Q4 and 2.2% for 2019:Q1. [Jan 18 estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The current GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2018 is 2.8 percent on January 16, unchanged from January 10. [Jan 16 estimate]
CR Note: These estimates suggest GDP in the mid-to-high 2s for Q4.