by Calculated Risk on 1/18/2019 02:48:00 PM

From Merrill Lynch:

4Q GDP tracking remains at 2.8%. We forecast 1Q GDP growth of 2.2%, but downside risks are emerging due to the government shutdown. [Jan 18 estimate]
emphasis added

From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report

The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2.6% for 2018:Q4 and 2.2% for 2019:Q1. [Jan 18 estimate]

And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow

The current GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2018 is 2.8 percent on January 16, unchanged from January 10. [Jan 16 estimate]

CR Note: These estimates suggest GDP in the mid-to-high 2s for Q4.