Friday, January 04, 2019

Q4 GDP Forecasts: Mid 2s

by Calculated Risk on 1/04/2019 12:24:00 PM

From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report

The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2.5% for 2018:Q4 and 2.1% for 2019:Q1. [Jan 4 estimate]
emphasis added
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
TThe GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2018 is 2.6 percent on January 3, down from 2.7 percent on December 21. The nowcasts of fourth-quarter real consumer spending growth and fourth-quarter real private fixed investment growth decreased from 3.7 percent and 2.7 percent, respectively, to 3.6 percent and 2.4 percent, respectively, after this morning’s Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management. [Jan 3 estimate]
CR Note: These estimates suggest GDP in the mid-2s for Q4.