Wednesday, January 16, 2019

Lawler; Early Read on Existing Home Sales in December: Big Drop

by Calculated Risk on 1/16/2019 02:43:00 PM

From housing economist Tom Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in December: Big Drop

Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.97 million in December, down 6.6% from November’s preliminary estimate and down 10.6% from last December’s seasonally adjusted pace.

On the inventory front, local realtor/MLS data, as well as data from other inventory trackers, suggest that the inventory of existing homes for sale in December was up by about 5.5% from last December.

Finally, local realtor/MLS data suggest that the median US existing single-family home sales price last month was up by about 2.7% from last December.

CR Note: Existing home sales for December are scheduled to be released on Tuesday, Jan 22nd. Based on this estimate, December sales, on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis, will be at the lowest level of sales since November 2015 (and that month was impacted by a regulation change).