Thursday, January 31, 2019

Goldman: January Payrolls Preview

by Bill McBride on 1/31/2019 04:06:00 PM

A few brief excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economists Choi and Hill:

We estimate nonfarm payrolls increased 180k in January, somewhat above consensus of +165k. … while weather likely contributed to last month’s blockbuster report, January was also relatively warm and dry during the reference week. The BLS has also clarified that furloughed and unpaid government workers will be included in tomorrow’s payroll counts (though contractor layoffs could weigh in some industries).

We estimate the unemployment rate increased one tenth to 4.0% in January (vs. consensus of 3.9%), mostly reflecting the furlough of nearly 400k federal workers that the BLS plans to classify as “unemployed on temporary layoff.” ... Finally, we expect average hourly earnings will increase 0.2% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year in tomorrow’s report...
emphasis added