by Calculated Risk on 1/02/2019 08:42:00 AM
Wednesday, January 02, 2019
Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for November. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for October. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).
From CoreLogic: CoreLogic Reports November Home Prices Increased by 5.1 Percent Year Over Year
CoreLogic® ... today released the CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI™) and HPI Forecast™ for November 2018, which shows home prices rose both year over year and month over month. Home prices increased nationally by 5.1 percent year over year from November 2017. On a month-over-month basis, prices increased by 0.4 percent in November 2018. (October 2018 data was revised. Revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results each month.)CR Note: The CoreLogic YoY increase has been in the 5% to 7% range for the last few years. This is near the bottom of that range - and slowing. The year-over-year comparison has been positive for almost seven consecutive years since turning positive year-over-year in February 2012.
Looking ahead, the CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates home prices will increase by 4.8 percent on a year-over-year basis from November 2018 to November 2019. On a month-over-month basis, home prices are expected to decrease by 0.8 percent from November to December 2018. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a projection of home prices calculated using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state.
“The rise in mortgage rates has dampened buyer demand and slowed home-price growth,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic. “Interest rates for new 30-year fixed-rate loans averaged 4.9 percent during November, the highest monthly average since February 2011. These higher rates and home prices have reduced buyer affordability. Home sellers are responding by lowering their asking price, which is reflected in the slowing growth of the CoreLogic Home Price Index.”