Saturday, December 15, 2018

Schedule for Week of December 16, 2018

by Bill McBride on 12/15/2018 08:11:00 AM

The key economic reports this week are November Housing Starts, Existing Home Sales, the 3rd estimate of Q3 GDP, and November Personal income and outlays.

For manufacturing, the December New York, Philly and Kansas City Fed surveys, will be released this week.

Also, the FOMC meets this week and is expected to raise the Fed Funds rate 25bps.

----- Monday, Dec 17th -----

8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for December. The consensus is for a reading of 21.0, down from 23.3.

10:00 AM: The December NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of  61, up from 60. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.

----- Tuesday, Dec 18th -----

Total Housing Starts and Single Family Housing Starts8:30 AM: Housing Starts for November.

This graph shows single and total housing starts since 1968.

The consensus is for 1.222 million SAAR, down from 1.228 million SAAR.

----- Wednesday, Dec 19th -----

7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

Existing Home Sales10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for November from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 5.19 million SAAR, down from 5.22 million.

The graph shows existing home sales from 1994 through the report last month.

During the day: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for November (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

2:00 PM: FOMC Meeting Announcement. The FOMC is expected to increase the Fed Funds rate 25 bps at this meeting.

2:00 PM: FOMC Forecasts This will include the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants' projections of the appropriate target federal funds rate along with the quarterly economic projections.

2:30 PM: Fed Chair Jerome Powell holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement.

----- Thursday, Dec 20th -----

8:30 AM ET: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 221 thousand initial claims, up from 206 thousand the previous week.

8:30 AM: the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for December. The consensus is for a reading of 17.5, up from 12.9.

----- Friday, Dec 21st -----

8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for November from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 1.5% increase in durable goods orders.

8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product, 3nd quarter 2018 (Third estimate). The consensus is that real GDP increased 3.5% annualized in Q3, unchanged from the second estimate of GDP.

10:00 AM: Personal Income and Outlays for November. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in personal income, and for a 0.3% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.2%.

10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Final for December). The consensus is for a reading of 97.5.

10:00 AM: State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for November 2018

11:00 AM: the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for December.