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Friday, December 14, 2018

Q4 GDP Forecasts: High 2s

by Calculated Risk on 12/14/2018 12:13:00 PM

From Merrill Lynch:

Core retail sales popped 0.9% mom in Nov with net upward revisions. Industrial production climbed 0.6% driven by utilities. These data boosted 4Q GDP tracking by 0.4pp to 2.9% qoq saar. [Dec 14 estimate].
emphasis added
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2018 is 3.0 percent on December 14, up from 2.4 percent on December 7. The nowcast of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth increased from 3.3 percent to 4.1 percent after this morning's retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau and this morning's industrial production release from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. [Dec 14 estimate]
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2.4% for both 2018:Q4 and 2019:Q1. [Dec 14 estimate]
CR Note: These early estimates suggest GDP in the high 2s for Q4.