Tuesday, December 18, 2018

Housing Starts Increased to 1.256 Million Annual Rate in November

by Calculated Risk on 12/18/2018 08:39:00 AM

From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions

Housing Starts:
Privately‐owned housing starts in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,256,000. This is 3.2 percent above the revised October estimate of 1,217,000, but is 3.6 percent below the November 2017 rate of 1,303,000. Single‐family housing starts in November were at a rate of 824,000; this is 4.6 percent below the revised October figure of 864,000. The November rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 417,000.

Building Permits:
Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,328,000. This is 5.0 percent above the revised October rate of 1,265,000 and is 0.4 percent above the November 2017 rate of 1,323,000. Single‐family authorizations in November were at a rate of 848,000; this is 0.1 percent above the revised October figure of 847,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 441,000 in November.
emphasis added
Total Housing Starts and Single Family Housing Starts Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts for the last several years.

Multi-family starts (red, 2+ units) increased  in November compared to October.   Multi-family starts were up 22% year-over-year in November.

Multi-family is volatile month-to-month, and  has been mostly moving sideways the last few years.

Single-family starts (blue) decreased in November, and were down 13% year-over-year.

Total Housing Starts and Single Family Housing Starts The second graph shows total and single unit starts since 1968.

 The second graph shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and then eventual recovery (but still historically low).

Total housing starts in November were above expectations (due to multi-family), and starts for September and October were revised up, combined.

I'll have more later ...