Thursday, December 06, 2018

Goldman: November Payrolls Preview

by Bill McBride on 12/06/2018 03:57:00 PM

A few brief excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill:

We estimate nonfarm payrolls increased 185k in November ... Our forecast reflects a 15-25k drag from winter storms, and given rising jobless claims and tighter financial conditions, the underlying pace of job growth may have also slowed somewhat. …

We expect the unemployment rate to remain at 3.7% in tomorrow’s report … We estimate average hourly earnings increased 0.3% month over month, with the year-over-year rate moving to a cycle high of 3.2%
emphasis added