Wednesday, December 19, 2018

FOMC Projections

by Calculated Risk on 12/19/2018 03:47:00 PM

Statement here.

Powell press conference video here.

On the projections, growth was revised down slightly, and inflation was softer.

GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
Change in
Real GDP1
201820192020
Dec 20183.0 to 3.1 2.3 to 2.51.8 to 2.0
Sep 20183.0 to 3.2 2.4 to 2.71.8 to 2.1
Jun 20182.7 to 3.0 2.2 to 2.61.8 to 2.0
1 Projections of change in real GDP and inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

The unemployment rate was at 3.7% in November. So the unemployment rate projection for 2018 was unchanged.

Unemployment projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
Unemployment
Rate2
201820192020
Dec 20183.73.5 to 3.73.5 to 3.8
Sep 20183.73.4 to 3.63.4 to 3.8
Jun 20183.6 to 3.73.4 to 3.53.4 to 3.7
2 Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

As of October, PCE inflation was up 2.0% from October 2017.  PCE inflation projections were revised down for 2018, 2019, and 2020.

Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
PCE
Inflation1
201820192020
Dec 20181.8 to 1.91.8 to 2.12.0 to 2.1
Sep 20182.0 to 2.12.0 to 2.12.1 to 2.2
Jun 20182.0 to 2.12.0 to 2.22.1 to 2.2

PCE core inflation was up 1.8% in October year-over-year. Core PCE inflation was revised down slightly for 2018.

Core Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
Core
Inflation1
201820192020
Dec 20181.8 to 1.92.0 to 2.12.0 to 2.1
Sep 20181.9 to 2.02.0 to 2.12.1 to 2.2
Jun 20181.9 to 2.02.0 to 2.22.1 to 2.2