Friday, November 02, 2018

October Employment Report: 250,000 Jobs Added, 3.7% Unemployment Rate

by Bill McBride on 11/02/2018 08:42:00 AM

From the BLS:

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 250,000 in October, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in manufacturing, in construction, and in transportation and warehousing.

Hurricane Michael made landfall in the Florida Panhandle on October 10, 2018, during the reference periods for both the establishment and household surveys. Hurricane Michael had no discernible effect on the national employment and unemployment estimates for October, and response rates for the two surveys were within normal ranges.
...
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for September was revised down from +134,000 to +118,000, and the change for August was revised up from +270,000 to +286,000. The downward revision in September offset the upward revision in August.
...
In October, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 5 cents to $27.30. Over the year, average hourly earnings have increased by 83 cents, or 3.1 percent.
emphasis added
Payroll jobs added per monthClick on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the monthly change in payroll jobs, ex-Census (meaning the impact of the decennial Census temporary hires and layoffs is removed - mostly in 2010 - to show the underlying payroll changes).

Total payrolls increased by 250 thousand in October (private payrolls increased 246 thousand).

Payrolls for August and September were unchanged combined.

Year-over-year change employmentThis graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.

In October the year-over-year change was 2.516 million jobs.

The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate.

Employment Pop Ratio, participation and unemployment rates The Labor Force Participation Rate increased in October to 62.9%. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force.   A large portion of the recent decline in the participation rate is due to demographics and long term trends.

The Employment-Population ratio increased to 60.6% (black line).

I'll post the 25 to 54 age group employment-population ratio graph later.

unemployment rateThe fourth graph shows the unemployment rate.

The unemployment rate was unchanged in October at 3.7%. 

This was above consensus expectations of 190,000 jobs.  A strong report.

I'll have much more later ...