Thursday, November 01, 2018

Goldman: October Payrolls Preview

by Bill McBride on 11/01/2018 06:50:00 PM

A few brief excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill:

We estimate nonfarm payrolls increased 210k in October, somewhat above consensus of +200k. Our forecast reflects a 15k net boost from weather … We expect the unemployment rate to remain at 3.7% in tomorrow’s report. …

We estimate average hourly earnings increased 0.1% month over month and 3.0% year-over-year ...
emphasis added
CR: Note that Goldman expects a 15,000 net boost from weather (bounce back from Hurricane Florence minus impact from Hurricane Michael.