Thursday, November 15, 2018

Earlier: NY Fed Mfg "Solid", Philly Fed Mfg "Slowed" in November

by Bill McBride on 11/15/2018 09:37:00 AM

Earlier: From the NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Survey

Business activity continued to grow at a solid clip in New York State, according to firms responding to the November 2018 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index edged up two points to 23.3.

The index for number of employees moved up five points to 14.1, and the average workweek index climbed nine points to 9.2, indicating increases in both employment levels and hours worked.
emphasis added
From the Philly Fed: November 2018 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey
Growth in manufacturing activity slowed in November, according to results from this month’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s broad indicators for general activity, new orders, shipments, employment, and work hours remained positive but fell from their readings last month. The firms remained generally optimistic about future growth.

The diffusion index for current general activity decreased from 22.2 in October to 12.9 in November, its lowest reading since August … The firms continued to report overall higher employment. Almost 25 percent of the responding firms reported increases in employment this month, while 8 percent of the firms reported decreases in employment. The current employment index remained positive but declined 3 points to 16.3. The current workweek index fell nearly 15 points to 6.3, its lowest reading in two years.
Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index:

Fed Manufacturing Surveys and ISM PMI Click on graph for larger image.

The New York and Philly Fed surveys are averaged together (yellow, through November), and five Fed surveys are averaged (blue, through October) including New York, Philly, Richmond, Dallas and Kansas City. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) PMI (red) is through October (right axis).

This suggests the ISM manufacturing index will show solid expansion again in November, but will likely be lower than in October.