Friday, October 05, 2018

September Employment Report: 134,000 Jobs Added, 3.7% Unemployment Rate

by Bill McBride on 10/05/2018 08:43:00 AM

From the BLS:

The unemployment rate declined to 3.7 percent in September, and total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 134,000, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, in health care, and in transportation and warehousing.

Hurricane Florence affected parts of the East Coast during the September reference periods for the establishment and household surveys. Response rates for the two surveys were within normal ranges.
...
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised up from +147,000 to +165,000, and the change for August was revised up from +201,000 to +270,000. With these revisions, employment gains in July and August combined were 87,000 more than previously reported.
...
In September, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 8 cents to $27.24. Over the year, average hourly earnings have increased by 73 cents, or 2.8 percent.
emphasis added
Payroll jobs added per monthClick on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the monthly change in payroll jobs, ex-Census (meaning the impact of the decennial Census temporary hires and layoffs is removed - mostly in 2010 - to show the underlying payroll changes).

Total payrolls increased by 134 thousand in September (private payrolls increased 121 thousand).

Payrolls for July and August were revised up by a combined 87 thousand.

Year-over-year change employmentThis graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.

In September the year-over-year change was 2.537 million jobs.

The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate.

Employment Pop Ratio, participation and unemployment rates The Labor Force Participation Rate was unchanged in September at 62.7%. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force.   A large portion of the recent decline in the participation rate is due to demographics and long term trends.

The Employment-Population ratio increased to 60.4% (black line).

I'll post the 25 to 54 age group employment-population ratio graph later.

unemployment rateThe fourth graph shows the unemployment rate.

The unemployment rate declined in September to 3.7%. 

This was below consensus expectations of 180,000 jobs, however the previous two months combined were revised up by 87,000.  A solid report.

I'll have much more later ...